Explainers

Racing Exotics Strategy: Trifecta, Quinella & First Four Maths for Australian Punters

AU exotics carry 18–30% takeout but pool overlays appear on Cup Day, Cox Plate, and any race with rec-money concentration. The maths is gettable.

Daniel Pham12 May

In-Play Betting in Australia: Why We Can't Have Nice Things

Every other major betting market in the world has online in-play. Australia doesn't, for a specific legal reason that dates back to 2001. Here's what actually exists and what you can do with it.

Tom Rafferty27 Apr

Neds Promotions and Bonus Bet Turnover Rules, Explained

Neds runs one of the more aggressive promotional calendars among AU bookmakers. The turnover rules matter more than the headline offer amounts.

James Whittaker1 Apr

What Are Steam Moves in Sports Betting? How AU Punters Can Spot and Use Them

When sharp money hits the market, it leaves footprints. Steam moves are the most reliable signal of where informed bettors are placing real money. Here is how to read them.

James Whittaker31 Mar

What is Betfair Exchange? A Beginner's Guide for Australian Punters

Betfair Exchange is not a bookmaker. It is a marketplace where you bet against other punters instead of the house. Back and lay bets, commission structure, BSP, and why it is essential for every serious AU advantage bettor.

Tom Rafferty1 Feb

What Is the Bookmaker's Margin (Vig)? How to Calculate It

Every price at every Australian bookmaker includes a hidden margin. Here's how to calculate it, what it tells you about a market, and why it matters for every bet you place.

James Whittaker1 Jan

How Do Bookmakers Set Odds? The AU Pricing Process Explained

Every bookmaker starts with a model. What happens between model output and the price you see on screen is where everything interesting lives.

James Whittaker29 Dec

Betfair Exchange Australia: How Commission and Premium Charge Actually Work

Betfair's commission and premium charge scare most AU punters away. Here's exactly how the fees work, when they apply, and what Betfair actually costs you compared to the corporates.

Daniel Pham28 Dec

Does Ladbrokes Limit Winners? What Australian Punters Need to Know

Ladbrokes limits winning accounts like every AU corporate. The specific patterns, what triggers it, and how to extend the life of a Ladbrokes account for as long as possible.

James Whittaker14 Dec

Closing Line Value vs Expected Value: What's the Difference?

EV is your prediction before the bet. CLV is the market's verdict after. A sharp bettor's CLV should match their claimed EV. If it doesn't, something is wrong.

Daniel Pham9 Dec

What Is a Surebet? A Complete Beginner's Guide for Australian Punters

Surebets guarantee profit regardless of the event outcome, by exploiting price differences between bookmakers. Here's what they are, how they work, and how to find them at AU bookmakers.

Daniel Pham20 Nov

How to Read Betting Odds: Decimal, Fractional, Moneyline and Implied Probability

Decimal odds are the Australian standard, but fractional and moneyline odds still appear. Here is how to read all three, calculate implied probability, and compare prices across bookmakers to find the best value.

Daniel Pham4 Nov

How Sportsbooks Build Their Numbers: Data, Models, and the Opening Line

Every market starts with a model. How sportsbooks source data, build pricing algorithms, and move from opening to closing line — and where the blind spots are.

Daniel Pham3 Nov

Are Betting Winnings Taxable in Australia? What the ATO Actually Says

Most punters won't pay tax on winnings — but the professional gambler threshold is lower than you think. What the ATO looks for and how to stay on the right side.

David Koval6 Oct

Explainer11 min

How Sportsbet's Promotions Actually Work (From the Outside Looking In)

Sportsbet spends enormous amounts on promos for a reason. Once you understand the logic, which offers are worth chasing and which are traps becomes obvious.

James Whittaker20 Sept

How EPL Over/Under Goals Markets Are Priced at AU Bookmakers

EPL over/under 2.5 goals is one of the most popular soccer markets in the world. Here's exactly how AU bookmakers price it and where the value tends to live for Australian punters.

James Whittaker14 Sept

Why Bookmakers Limit Winning Customers, Explained

AU bookmakers are not evil for limiting winners. They are just running a business model that structurally cannot tolerate them. Here is what is actually going on.

James Whittaker26 Aug