Analysis

How Much Does the Average Australian Punter Lose? The Real Numbers

The average Australian punter loses thousands per year. We analysed the real data and compared it to what data-driven bettors achieve.

David Koval1 Sept

Analysis

9 min

Greyhound Box Stats: Does Box 1 Actually Win More?

Box 1 is supposed to be the best draw in greyhound racing. We measured 2,000+ races to find out if it's actually true — and which tracks break the pattern.

David Koval29 Aug

Analysis14 min

Prediction Markets vs Bookmakers: Where's the Edge in AU?

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are growing fast. But do they offer better odds than Australian bookmakers? We measured 100+ markets to find out.

David Koval28 Aug

Analysis13 min

Closing Line Value: Does Beating the Close Actually Predict Profit?

Professional bettors swear by closing line value. We analysed 10,000+ bets to find out if beating the close actually predicts profit — and the answer is nuanced.

David Koval27 Aug

Tote vs Fixed Odds: Which Pays Better in Australian Racing?

Tote or fixed? We measured 1,000+ Australian races to find out which bet type pays more — and the answer isn't as simple as you think.

David Koval25 Aug

Minute-by-Minute: How AFL Odds Move Before Bounce

We tracked AFL odds minute-by-minute in the 24 hours before bounce. Here's when the biggest moves happen — and when you should place your bets.

David Koval25 Aug

Melbourne Cup 2026: Odds Movement Analysis

We analysed Melbourne Cup odds movements from our archive. Here's when the big moves happen, how favourites perform, and where to find value.

David Koval25 Aug

Harness Racing Odds: The Overlooked Opportunity

Harness racing offers some of the best value in Australian betting. Most tools ignore it — here's the data that shows why you shouldn't.

David Koval23 Aug

Firmers vs Drifters: Which Win More in Australian Racing?

When a horse drifts from $4 to $6, does it still have a chance? We measured the strike rates of firmers vs drifters across 500+ Australian races. The answer might surprise you.

David Koval22 Aug

Analysis14 min

How Often Do Arbitrage Bets Actually Appear? 30-Day Log

We logged every arbitrage opportunity across 140+ Australian bookmakers for 30 days. Here's how often they appear, how long they last, and whether you can actually profit from them.

David Koval20 Aug

Australian Bookmaker Margin Report: August 2026

We measured the overround on every head-to-head market across 140+ Australian bookmakers in August 2026. Here are the results — and what they mean for your bets.

David Koval18 Aug

We Built a Machine Learning Model for Australian Racing — Here's What 233,000 Races Taught Us About Market Efficiency

The betting market knows more than most models give it credit for. We trained on 233K races to find out exactly where the edge lives — and where it doesn't.

James Whittaker10 Aug

Analysis7 min

Why Being Right 70% of the Time Can Still Lose You Money (And Being Right 26% Can Make a Fortune)

Our AFL model is right 71% of the time and loses money. Our NRL try scorer model is right 26% of the time and prints profit. Here is why.

Daniel Pham10 Aug

Opinion7 min

NRL Player Props Get Sloppy in the Second Half of the Season — Here's What to Do About It

NRL prop markets show wider cross-bookmaker price gaps in the second half of the season. Origin disruption, injury replacements, and slow model adjustments create real value for punters who know where to look.

David Koval29 July

Cox Plate & Caulfield Cup: Australian Form Guide for the Lead-Up Races

Caulfield Cup form correlates to Melbourne Cup. Cox Plate form does not. Most AU punters get that backwards.

James Whittaker12 May

IPL Betting from Australia: Time Zones, Sharp Markets, and the AU Bookmaker Catch-Up

The IPL has the sharpest T20 close in cricket. AU operators play catch-up. Time-zone alpha exists if you know where to look.

James Whittaker12 May

Analysis8 min

Why Your "Sure Thing" Multi of Four Short-Priced Favourites Is a Mathematical Disaster

Four favourites at $1.20 each combined into a $2.07 multi feels like free money. Run the numbers. It is the opposite of free money.

Tom Rafferty18 Apr

The NRL Line Movement Patterns I Watch Before Every Round

NRL lines shorten for a reason. Learning to distinguish sharp money from public money is the difference between riding a steam move and betting into the wrong side of one.

James Whittaker4 Apr

Why 98% of Punters Lose: The Cold Math of Sports Betting

A 5% vig per bet becomes a 92% chance of losing over 500 bets. The arithmetic of why almost everyone loses — and what it actually takes to finish in the 2%.

James Whittaker20 Mar

The AFL Teams the Market Has Historically Overrated

Some AFL clubs are always priced shorter than they deserve. It's not the bookmakers' fault - it's the weight of public money on popular teams. Here's where the value lives.

Sarah Nguyen25 Feb

I Tracked Every Bet For a Year. Here's What CLV Actually Looks Like.

A full year of bet-by-bet closing line value data. The categories that beat the close, the ones that didn't, and the three weeks where I almost quit.

David Koval16 Feb

The Economics of Tipping Subscriptions: Why Most Subscribers Lose Money Even With +EV Tips

Even +EV tips don't guarantee subscriber profit. Subscription cost, odds movement, limits, and stake constraints eat the edge — and the maths is brutal.

James Whittaker10 Jan

NBA Player Props in Australia: Which Markets Have Value

NBA player props are arguably the sharpest edge available to AU advantage bettors right now. Here's which specific markets offer genuine value and which are priced too tightly.

Sarah Nguyen15 Nov

NRL Try Scorer Markets: Anytime vs First Try Scorer (Where the Value Actually Is)

Anytime try scorer is one of the highest-value NRL prop markets. First try scorer is one of the worst. Both look similar at first glance. Here's why one is genuinely beatable and the other is mostly a trap.

Sarah Nguyen6 Nov

Esports Betting in Australia: Markets, Bookmakers, and Whether There's Any Value

Esports markets are young, volatile, and structurally different from traditional sports. Where the edge lives — and where it does not.

Daniel Pham18 Oct

How Bookmaker Pricing Decisions Directly Affect Your Bottom Line

When a bookmaker shortens a price, the difference goes into their margin — and out of your return. How pricing decisions affect your bottom line, bet by bet.

Tom Rafferty19 Sept

The AFL Margin Prediction That Got Everyone Paid (And the One That Didn't)

Market consensus is a good margin tipster on average. On any given match it can be brilliant or badly wrong. Two worked examples show exactly what to expect.

David Koval9 Sept