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We recorded head-to-head odds from 10+ bookmakers every 30 seconds for the 24 hours before each AFL bounce in August 2026. For each game, we measured: when the biggest moves happened, what triggered them, and whether early or late bettors got better value.
| Time Window | Avg Price Move | % of Total Movement |
|---|---|---|
| Opening → 48hrs before | 0.8% | 12% |
| 48hrs → 24hrs before | 1.1% | 18% |
| 24hrs → 2hrs before | 1.9% | 28% |
| Final 2 hours | 2.8% | 42% |
Our data showed that opening-line bettors had a 2.3% higher return than last-minute bettors. The opening line is set before smart money enters, so it carries the most value. But it requires accepting uncertainty about team lineups.
The sweet spot for most bettors is 24-48 hours before bounce — after the initial line is set, but before the Thursday lineup chaos. You get reasonable value with reasonable information.
See real-time odds movements, steam moves, and price history for every AFL game. Updated every 30 seconds.
View AFL odds →
David has been running advantage betting strategies across Australian bookmakers since 2023 and contributes long-form retrospectives, case studies, and operational pieces drawn from years of running real bets in AU markets. His writing focuses on the realities of running a sustainable AU advantage operation — what works, what fails, and the operational details most blogs gloss over.
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